Daily Energy Report
Crude Oil Futures for February 2021 settled down $0.95 @ $47.02/bbl, trading in a $1.36 range including the overnight. RBOB settled down 2.09/cpg and Heating Oil settled down 1.58/cpg. The Energy Information Administration currently forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 27.5 million barrels per day in 2021, up from an estimated 25.6 million/bpd in calendar 2020. The increase reflects OPEC’s announced potential increases to production targets and production increases in Libya. At the December 3 meeting, OPEC and OPEC+ participants decided to limit oil production increases planned for January 2021. OPEC+ announced it will increase its production target by +0.5 million/bpd in January 2021. The group had initially planned to increase its target by +2.0 million/bpd. The EIA now forecasts OPEC crude oil production will average 25.7 million/bpd in the first quarter of 2021, which is -1.7 million/bpd lower than forecast in the previous STEO. Natural Gas Futures for January 2021 settled up $0.075 @ $2.780/mmbtu, trading in a $0.116 range including the overnight session.
The Energy Information Administration currently forecasts domestic dry natural gas production will average 90.9 bcf/d in 2020, which is down from an average of 93.1 bcf/d during calendar 2019. In the forecast, monthly average production falls from a record 97.0 bcf/d in December 2019 to 87.1 bcf/d in April 2021 before increasing slightly. The EIA forecasts dry natural gas production in the United States to average 87.9 bcf/d in 2021. EIA expects production to begin rising in the second quarter of 2021 in response.
