GAP State-of-Play for week ending Jan. 15, 2021

GAP State-of-Play — week ending Jan. 15, 2021


Welcome to this week’s snapshot of the global grains and oilseeds industry. For the full report, click link at the end.

  • Markets open at 7 p.m. CST today — Monday, 18 January.
  • Managed money continues to liquidate/sell off soybean long vs. another big jump in corn long /open interest.
  • Palm oil starts this week with a slight bounce after being clobbered LW (FH Jan Malaysia palm oil exports down 42% vs. FH Dec).
  • Dalian soy complex starts this week lower.
  • USDA reports — all pushed back one day with exports for the week ending 14 January out Tuesday @ 10 a.m. CST.
  • Good rains/conditions across majority of Brazil + Argentina (only 10% of entire area called “stressed”).
  • Widespread rains across Brazil over the weekend — more rain event/potential dialed in for Argentina in the 6-15 day (dry threat largely absent now for the corn + soy areas).
  • Argentina farmer starting to pick up sales there — soymeal premiums sharply lower on Friday (down $5-7/MT and now $10/MT discount to U.S.) as crush margins look much better vs. 30 days ago at +40 vs. single digits.
  • Market focused on Brazil truck strike risk/threat 1 February — this as harvest is really starting to pick up while its export line-up now over 3MMT.
  • China picks up additional LH Oct/Nov U.S. ownership and private crushers booking May ex — both Argentina & Brazil…fairly active week for China LW on booking cargoes.

To read the full GAP State-of-Play for the week ending Jan. 15, 2021, click here.


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